- Economists expect the U.S. to suffer its largest-ever contraction this quarter and the unemployment rate to soar to a post-Depression record, followed by a recovery that will be moderate and drawn out.
- Gross domestic product will plummet an annualized 25% from April through June after a smaller setback in the first quarter and the jobless rate will hit 12.6%, the highest since the 1940s
- The downturn looks likely to be deemed as the first recession since 2007-2009, with the second half of the year will see a resumption of a slow return to growth
- Even if the economy starts to re-open in mid-May, more than 20 million Americans will have lost their job with the economy likely having contracted around 13% peak-to-trough, more than three times deeper than the global financial crisis,
- We estimate U.S. economic output won’t return” to the late-2019 peak until mid-2022 at the earliest
